The Raw Steels Monthly Metals Index (MMI) remained sideways, with a modest 0.32% increase from October to November.
U.S. steel prices have begun to rebound. HRC and plate prices led the trend, finding at least a short-term bottom at the close of September, while CRC and HDG prices followed in the subsequent weeks. Thus far, price increases have been modest. This suggests that the recent upside remains somewhat fragile, rather than indicating a meaningful rebound in demand.
Steel mill lead times remain largely unchanged as they continue to trend within a historically short range. While mills have seemingly regained control of the price trend, buyers have yet to jump into the market with any significant momentum. This will continue to be a limiting factor for further gains.
Meanwhile, output has started to recover from fall maintenance outages. Though there are a few more outages still to be completed in November and December, the worst is over. Assuming mills intend to return output to summer levels, the increase in production will pose a downside risk to steel prices.
It is worth noting that this year’s fall outage schedule paled in comparison to what mills took last year. Prices plummeted throughout the first half of 2024, squeezing margins toward their profitability threshold. This led mills to take drastic measures with regard to capacity cuts. Production levels dropped nearly 10% throughout September, pushing the capacity utilization rate to its lowest level in more than a year before output slowly returned online.
This year, weekly production levels declined by only 4% before recovering in mid-October.
For now, import appetites remain soft. This gives domestic mills more leverage over the supply balance, allowing for fewer cuts before steel prices bottom out. As of August, HRC, CRC and HDG imports were trending below where they stood during the pandemic. This comes as the combination of lackluster demand conditions and tariffs has cut millions of tons of offshore supply from the U.S. market.
Mill lead times have echoed the recent upward trend in prices, trending longer from where they stood in September. However, the steel price moves remain mostly modest and hardly represent a meaningful tightening. HRC lead times now average around 4.85 weeks, up only slightly from mid-September’s 4.7 weeks and beneath their 5.1 week average.
Steel shipments witnessed a modest slowdown during Q3 as compared to Q2. While shipments from SDI hit a new record high, both Nucor and Cliffs saw decreases. However, the overall declines were small, and shipments remained considerably higher than they were during the same period in 2024, as tariffs helped insulate mills from largely lackluster market conditions. Service centers also experienced a slowdown in shipments, as both Reliance and Ryerson posted quarterly declines.
Across steel suppliers, the Q4 outlook proved largely downcast. Reliance noted that, “Trade policy uncertainty and readily available inventory are causing buyers to be hesitant, creating an extremely competitive market.” Ryerson acknowledged that overall market conditions remain weak, stating, “For the fourth quarter of 2025, Ryerson expects customer shipments to decrease by 5% to 7% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting normal seasonality patterns as well as the soft manufacturing and industrial metal demand conditions.”
Nucor echoed this sentiment, noting, “We expect earnings in the fourth quarter of 2025 to be lower than the third quarter of 2025. In the steel mills segment, the expected decrease is primarily due to lower overall volumes along with lower average selling prices in our sheet mills. In the steel products segment, the expected decrease is mainly due to lower volumes.”
Suppliers are largely hoping to benefit from the rush of data centers slated for construction in 2026. Although it remains to be seen whether this sector will be enough to compensate for weaknesses in other industries, tariffs will nonetheless continue to benefit domestic suppliers.